It’s been no secret that the Stars haven’t gotten much from Joe Pavelski this postseason.
Through 15 games, Pavelski has just that one goal and three assists, which matches his point total from just one game against Seattle last year.
Pavelski is not scoring, but he is still playing, and playing a lot. In fact, Pavelski is averaging 18:35 per night in ice time, which is the second-highest average of his four postseasons with Dallas.
At 5v5, the Stars have outscored their opposition 5-4 with Pavelski on the ice, so it’s not as though he’s tanking things while he’s out there. Last year, for instance, that margin was 11-10 in Dallas’s favor, so the ratio is pretty consistent. But his underlying numbers have slipped, and it’s fair to say Pavelski hasn’t wowed anyone for large portions of the playoffs thus far, and he knows it.
That would be okay if Pavelski was pulling a Jason Spezza and still producing on the power play, though. In fact, Pavelski has already spent 34 minutes of power play time on the ice this playoff run, which surpasses his 31 minutes from last year. Unfortunately, that time hasn’t been as profitable for Pavelski this go-round. Nothing close to it, in fact. He has just one secondary assist on the man-advantage, whereas he piled up four goals and an assist last year on the job.
Part of this might be a result of the matchups, I suppose. Vegas was all about solving their structure and capitalizing on openings, whereas Colorado had a lot more pace to their game, which Pavelski is less-suited for. But while Pavelski has never been the fastest skater on the ice, it’s never really mattered before. His biggest asset has always been the ability for solve for his limitations in order to contribute with the incredible abilities he does have. Whether that’s deflecting pucks, finding the soft areas of the ice for rebounds, or even setting up players with great passes, Pavelski has, throughout his career, shown the ability to be a significant contributor, time after time.
I mean, watch that montage of Pavelski goals, and you can see why he needs to be in the lineup, right? This is a player with a great shot, great awareness, and the ability to turn chances into goals for a whole lot of places on the ice. And what’s more, that ability isn’t primarily a result of explosive speed or net-front battle strength. I’d almost go so far as to say it’s really just a matter of “being really good at hockey.” One-timers, deflections, high levels of awareness, and accurate snap shots are all weapons that coaches want on scoring lines, and Pavelski has made a career out of deploying exactly those skills.
Remember, Pavelski was a seventh-round draft pick. He’s gone on to have an incredible career, and even with his dry spell these playoffs, I don’t think you can really make a case for scratching him, given what he brings. Even his playoff goal was a result of the exact same skills he’s retained this season: a deft poke above the crease after correctly reading a forecheck to capitalize on a quick scoring opportunity. He just knows what to do, and is capable of doing it.
Because of how tight most of the playoff games have been this run, and because of the high standard he’s set for himself through almost two decades, Pavelski has drawn a lot of criticism from fans for not bringing more. And Pavelski knows he has to contribute more, too, as he told the media:
“I believe I have more to give. There are certain areas of my game that have been fine and good, and certain areas that need improvement. At the end of the day, there are no excuses for me that way. It’s about finding it and wanting it. You’ve got to push and get some reps in. It’s wanting more out there.”
I don’t know what Pavelski’s plan is for next year. It does seem significant that he hasn’t announced a one-year extension during the season, like he and the Stars have done for the last couple of years. And there have been a few more times this year, even before the playoffs, when he just “looked” a bit slower, whether in speed, reaction time, or in execution. Confidence is an athlete’s most fragile ally, and when it finally up and leaves, it tends to take a lot of the furniture with it. As Peter DeBoer said this morning, all players have insecurities by virtue of the inherent flaw of being human beings.
But the swan song about Pavelski’s sunsetting is a bit premature, I think. This is a player who can turn a small opportunity into grand success, and the playoffs are as perfect a stage for this magic act as you’re going to find. Pavelski may be in the 8th inning with a sore arm, but he also knows that he does have more, that he can dig deep. He’s played over 1,300 games after basically being a lottery ticket of a draft pick, so I’d bet against him at your own peril. He is never going to stop putting in the work to make sure he’s as ready as can be when the opportunities do come.
That said, a four-goal outburst seems unlikely, to put it mildly. Pavelski has gotten older, chronologically speaking, and perhaps the hardest thing about getting older is the realization that you need more help to do the same things. Pavelski might not be able to get quite as much separation as he used to with one or two strides, or to beat goalies quite as easily with a quick shot, or to hit the spot he wants to quite as often. We are all decaying, all becoming more aware that the more frequent soreness of our muscles is the prelude to the weakening of the bones underneath.
But help is still there as we get older. In fact, as a direct result of Pavelski extending help to one of his teammates, that help has lived under his same roof for two years now. Johnston may not be playing on the same line as Pavelski tonight, but he’s finally learned how to sit next to him on the couch, which is something. Pavelski is a leader, and he’s been a virtual second captain since the moment he arrived. These players have been through things nobody outside that group will ever hear about, and those galvanizing experiences can sometimes be the difference between taking that extra stride on a forecheck or slowing up, between cutting to the net and stopping or gliding around it.
I’ve heard some people talk about how Dallas needs to swap out Pavelski for a fresher, younger player like Dellandrea or Bourque, and in a vacuum, you could certainly consider that sort of a move. Edmonton, for instance, just sat Corey Perry for the last three games for similar reasons. But this team is far from a vacuum. Scratching Pavelski would be an act of cold desperation, not creative construction. Maybe it’s the temptation of the narrative, the desire to see the older player give it one last go. It rarely works out that way, but perhaps we’re just blinded by our hearts.
I don’t think so, though. Pavelski’s presence in the lineup has never been an act of charity, and even on nights where he’s looked off, Pavelski is always going to the same places, running the right routes. DeBoer himself said this morning that Pavelski is as much coach as he is player on this team, and while you need to see the benefits of both those roles, we’re still a long ways away from being able to say that the limitations of the player role have outstripped everything else Pavelski brings. His defensive abilities continue to be undersold, he can read off most any linemate, and hey, if anyone’s going to solve Edmonton’s oddly dominant penalty kill, wouldn’t you expect it to be someone like Pavelski, who has scored over 200 power play goals in his NHL career?
We all want the storybook ending for Pavelski, a shining moment of glory, a Ray Bourque moment a couple of weeks from now. None of that is guaranteed, or even likely. But it’s close. It’s close, and it’s possible, and there are a whole lot of people who love Joe Pavelski very much. And you can bet they’ll be ready to jump over any wall to make it happen, now that they’ve come this close. Love can do that. It’s all we have, after all.
Stars Thoughts: Robert Tiffin's attempt to understand the Dallas Stars and everything else 
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