Please don’t make me feel like a disaster
I’m learning how to put the pieces back together
And turn the aching to composure
I’m thinking with my head first
No more broken phones or swollen knuckles
From putting holes in the booth by the back wall
***
You know that Ryan Suter has four kids at home, because he knows exactly how to clean up the backside of someone he cares about.
This reminds me of Sergei Zubov’s “Mortal Battle” save behind Turco that took place probably 15 years ago, at least. Of all the Colorado scoring chances in the first period—and there were many—this is the one that sticks with me. And the two saviors (if Benn is actually helping here, and not putting it into his own net) were two somewhat-maligned veterans in recent years. But now that they’re in their proper roles, they’re being lauded as heroes. Expectations matter!
You’d be right to expect good things at this point, given how Tyler Seguin scored the game-winner and the game-ender in this one, too. Dallas is never going to keep Nate MacKinnon quiet for an extended period of time, because he’s playing some of the best hockey on the planet right now. But they don’t have to when they can get all-out efforts from the entire lineup, like they did in many ways tonight.
Take Seguin’s first goal. This is a symphony, a majestic performance of hockey principles writ large. It’s like Beethoven’s Ninth got covered by Jimi Hendrix and five other guys almost as good. Just watch how every single player makes the exact right read off and on the puck:
This is why Colorado has not yet held a lead in this series, depending on how you understand the concept of time and overtime wins. The Stars, when they’re on, are a roster full of players who make the right play with the right people on the ice. Every single line has a threat right now, whereas Colorado only got the single goal they did because Nathan MacKinnon picked up a Mariokart invincible star for a few seconds.
Tyler Seguin has been looking better as the playoffs have moved along, whereas the Colorado Avalanche have looked more shallow with each passing game. That shallowness isn’t necessarily evidenced in their play, mind you. The Avs still jumped out with a ton of pressure, leaning on the Stars for the bulk of the first period, and much of the second. Like the Stars the other night, the Avs got the first three power plays, and they had all the chances for much of the first 40 minutes. But unlike the Stars the other night, the Avs were losing 2-1 after that same 40-minute set. Dallas has a deep roster of players who can play, sure; but they can also score, and that means finishing against a locked-in goalie in the playoffs.
You may recall that this Stars roster had 10 forwards who scored at least 10 goals this season. The other two? Sam Steel, who was one of the best forwards on the ice tonight, and Logan Stankoven, who scored two goals (and would’ve scored over 20 had he been up for the whole season). It’s been said so much it seems trite, but this is the sort of game that bears it out: Dallas can score at any time, with any line.
By the way, did you know Roope Hintz is now plus-4 in this series?
Colorado may have generated a ton of chances early, but Val Nichushkin looked a lot more like the version we remember from Dallas in this one, having been moved off the MacKinnon line (presumably in hopes of spreading the offense around). Cale Makar has cooled down considerably since Game 1, and the Stars took three Colorado power plays right off the hop and sent them back to the kitchen without an apology. There’s some serious swagger in the Stars’ roster right now, and it’s the sort you earn from doing difficult things together. Colorado’s confidence seems legitimately shaken at this point, with Dallas coming on stronger in the third period, defending a one-goal lead far more effectively than they did a three- or four-goal lead earlier in the series. Maybe it’s the psychology of having a big lead and taking your foot off the gas, or maybe it’s the reality here that Dallas is the deeper team.
For so long, the Stars had to be the one with the one-line team, with the one good defenseman, with the good-enough goalie. Now, they’re the team making the recent champs start to sweat. When Dallas has started a game off hot, they’ve piled up goals. When Colorado did it, they ended up trailing, and losing. Every game has been a one-goal contest, effectively, but the Avs’ only offense has come from score effects, reflexively. Jared Bednar has to be searching for answers right now, since the Stars appear to be cured of the night terrors that used to come from facing this team. This isn’t some sort of pesky identity crisis; this is a team rolling with confidence, annoyed by a stolen overtime win, now sitting in prime position in the series.
Nothing is guaranteed until you go out and take it, though. The Stars lost Game 6 last round. They missed on a couple more breakaways in this one, and their one power play didn’t look comfortable for most of its two minutes. Chris Tanev, who did yeoman’s work as always, finally ate a minus at even-strength after Nathan MacKinnon did this:
The Avalanche are still very good, and the Stars will not be receiving any free passes to the Western Conference Final. But given the fact that Logan Stankoven is playing like a seasoned veteran, and given that Tyler Seguin has more goals than any other player in the series, it’s not a stretch to say that pressure is mounting quickly on the Avalanche. It’s piling up, you might say. Things are going downhill, in other words. I don’t know how else to say it. Logan Stankoven has an extremely good shot, one that feels like a giant pile of snow hitting you, and squeezing through you. This is called a belabored metaphor, and it is what we writers use when it is 1:30 in the morning.
Sam Steel drove the net hard on Seguin’s goal, and he was a Georgiev goalstick shaft away from tying Nathan MacKinnon in goals this series. That’s how relatively absent the Avs’ best players have been from the scoresheet so far. Some of that is great defending by Dallas, not least of which is the third period clinic they put on, absolutely forcing Colorado to cough up the puck at the blue line countless times during the 2-1 portion of the game. But some of the Avs’ struggles might just be due to the fact that they’re asking their top guys to play minutes equivalent to the entire Top 4 defensemen in Dallas:
The Stars are having to saddle their top defensemen with more minutes because of Nils Lundkvist (either the concept or the person, take your pick). The Avs are stuck loading up their big boys because they don’t have much hope of getting help from anywhere down the lineup. And with the Stars’ penalty kill having clearly made some wise adjustments, the Avs suddenly can’t rely on an automatic power play to contribute, either. That’s the sort of thing that makes you start to grip your hockey stick a bit more tightly in the third period, you know?
It’s true that Colorado’s speed and size make you feel like you’re hanging on for dear life, at times, but that’s not always the truth. Dallas defended well when they had to in this one, with Chris Tanev’s heroic save on MacKinnon with an open net being the most obvious example. Many middling teams have frustrating games where they feel like they were the better team, but they don’t come away with the win. That’s because they aren’t the better team. The best teams have the best goalies, who neutralize more chances than average. They have the best finishers, who convert on more chances than most other teams. They also have the best defenders, who sabotage chances more than their counterparts. The Stars didn’t deserve to win this one because they built a taller pile of rocks than the other team, but because they constructed a stronger edifice to begin with. They made the plays they had to, and Colorado didn’t. And through three games of this series, you’d be hard-pressed to bet on things reversing course any time soon.
Wyatt Johnston got outchanced 6-0 during his ice time tonight, and that’s fine. Colorado clearly chose to deploy the MacKinnon line against the Jamie Benn-Johnston-Joe Pavelski line, and they got a lot of pressure out of that matchup, albeit no goals (the fourth line absorbed the minus). Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley didn’t score tons of goals this time, and that didn’t cause a problem. All that really needed to happen was for someone to step up and win what was effectively a 2-1 game, and Colorado simply couldn’t do it at home, or with three power plays. You have to imagine they’d take their shot at this sort of premise again, but who knows whether they’ll ever get the chance?
When teams talk about depth, they usually mean “we need better players at the bottom of our lineup.” But the Stars solved that problem not by adding at the bottom, but by adding at the top, and then sliding everyone down a peg. Logan Stankoven went from the AHL to the top line against Colorado, and he just potted two goals a mile above sea level. Tyler Seguin scored a goal on a shift with Steel and Dadonov. Real depth isn’t a luxury you buy, but a result of proper roster construction. I believe the gentlemen in Toronto may want to consider this.
***
I don’t know what you do with Joe Pavelski or Nils Lundkvist right now.
I think you might genuinely have to consider swapping Dadonov with Pavelski for the next game, just to give the Johnston-Benn pairing a speedier option on the wing. But I can’t really see Pavelski playing with Smith and Steel, so you’re at a bit of an impasse with Seguin looking great next to Marchment and Duchene. Again, these are good problems to have, but that doesn’t mean that they aren’t still problems.
As for the five defensemen, I am going to recommend we all just sit back and enjoy the ride. Nils has been on the ice for five goals (three for, two against) in this series so far, and that’s only in like 12 minutes of ice time! Some people demand that players “make things happen!”, and Lundkvist has fulfilled that part of his duty with aplomb. Time to see what his next surprise might be. I personally prefer the beautiful passes to the needless penalties, but one mustn’t get greedy, mustn’t one?
Colorado will bring an even stronger push on Monday. Dallas will have to weather it again, and they’ll have to counterpunch, again. All the good vibes from a win can be sapped quickly, as Vegas learned recently. It will be up to Dallas to force the Avalanche to climb the steepest mountain they’ve seen all year.
Stars Thoughts: Robert Tiffin's attempt to understand the Dallas Stars and everything else 
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