Monday Dallas Stars Roundup: Brendan Smith’s Forward Progress, 4 Nations Prestige, and Defensive Decisions

Welcome to the last week in January. Let’s go through some news from an optional Dallas Stars practice today, where everyone practiced except for Miro Heiskanen, Matt Duchene, Evgenii Dadonov, Esa Lindell, and Roope Hintz.

Well, not “everyone,” I suppose. I mean, I did not practice on the ice today, but that’s only because I am bad at hockey, as opposed to the players, who are all among the best in the world. One small detail, that’s the only difference.

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Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith were very good in back-to-back games last weekend, with Oettinger making a world-class save in the final minute against Vegas, and Casey DeSmith logging a shutout the following night in St. Louis.

Both goalies were tested heavily at times. That was particularly true in the third period of each contest, where the Stars’ momentum seemed to noticeable slow. In talking with Casey DeSmith today, he mentioned how it can be easier for a goalie to get into the flow of a game when they’re seeing shots regularly. But after acknowledging that, he also said this: “a Grade A is a Grade A.”

In other words, no matter how good your “feel” is for a game, a great scoring chance is still going to be tough to stop. As all goalies will tell you, every shutout is earned.

Sometimes games like that are just a result of score effects, of course, where a team with a lead sits back a bit more rather than owning the puck in the offensive zone as much, leading to more chances in the defensive zone with players back in hopes of avoiding odd-man rushes or breakaways. But other times that sort of a game is indicative of something else.

I asked Pete DeBoer about the heavy push by opposing teams in the back half of the last two games, and here’s what he said today:

“That, for me, is fatigue,” said DeBoer. “We’re at the end of 11 games in 19 nights, back-to-back. It’s funny, but fatigue, the first thing that goes is your brain, your decision-making, and I thought we really battled hard through the end of that game [against St. Louis] to keep that two-nothing. Our goalie was good, too, and they did get some looks. It wasn’t because we were reckless with the puck, or taking penalties, or out of position. We just didn’t have any gas left in the tank. It didn’t feel good, the play down the stretch, but I was really proud of our group, how they handled that considering the circumstances. For the most part, I feel like we tilt the ice in our favor almost every night when we’ve got gas in the tank.”

I think that’s a pretty accurate assessment of the Stars, really. Their underlying numbers like expected goals and special team pressure are all very good (other than power play finishing, though that’s been very good since the calendar flipped, too). It’s just been those stinkers once in a while that really cause doubt to creep in, and with fatigue a real thing for every single team this year in the compressed schedule, you wonder if that decision-making that fatigue hampers has been especially rough for the top finishers.

Or I should say, “was” especially rough, given how players like Jason Robertson have exploded in the last month. Roberton has 10 goals and 22 assists in his last 16 games, putting him nearly back on track with last year’s production to this point.

Last year through his first 49 games, Robertson scored 17 goals and 33 assists. This year, through 49 games, Robertson has scored 17 goals and 28 assists. Would anyone bet against him blowing past last year’s marks by the end of this season, the way he’s been playing?

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DeBoer was also very complimentary of Brendan Smith’s play at forward over the last two games.

“Smitty’s done a really good job up front, given us a physical presence, you know, he gets in on the forecheck, he’s disruptive. I thought he’s been really good there,” said DeBoer this morning. “I think he’s wired to go, to skate, to go north, as a defenseman. Especially in our structure, in our team, we’ve got a couple of guys in [Heiskanen] and Harley, but that’s probably not the number one thing we’re looking for in our depth defensemen, is those instincts. And he’s wired that way.”

It’s interesting to hear DeBoer characterize Smith as a defenseman who’s “wired” to “go north,” as he’s typically been deployed on a defensive pairing this year. But regardless of wiring, Smith seems likely to reprise his role up front on the fourth line against Vegas tomorrow. The Stars have not yet recalled any other forwards since sending Matěj Blümel back to the Texas Stars over the weekend (for whom Blümel scored a goal last night, by the way), and with Mason Marchment skating but not likely to be ready quite yet—he wasn’t wearing a red “no-contact” sweater today at the optional practice, but he also wasn’t wearing one at morning skate last week, so I wouldn’t read too much into it—it’s probably a safe bet that the Stars use the same lineup tomorrow as they did in their last two games.

That’s a tough thing for Nils Lundkvist, who was the last one off the ice today after some pretty intense work with the Stars’ strength and conditioning coach. Lundkvist has noticeably improved his game this year, and it seems clear he’s done everything asked of him, which has shown up in places like his winning more battles along the boards. But in the end, DeBoer (like so many other NHL head coaches) seems clear in his belief about the importance of size on the back end when the playoffs arrive.

With that said, DeBoer was more reserved in his praise of Matt Dumba and Lian Bichsel’s physical pairing on the blue line.

“Two solid games, but you know, build on it,” said DeBoer. “They have the potential to be a good pair, a really hard pair to play against, but too early in the process here now. They’ve been solid two games in a row, and I wanna see more of that.”

If I’m going to risk translating that, I’d say DeBoer still would like to add another reliable option on the blue line before trades shut down on March 7. Of course, that’s not his job. And of course, if something doesn’t come together or if injuries hit, then that third pairing may well be called into action anyhow. And who knows? Maybe they turn into something really solid over the next little bit. But they do have work to do to prove that, it sounds like.

In any case, given how DeBoer has discussed the defense, I’d tentatively say that Brendan Smith is more likely to play forward in the playoffs than defense. And that might go for a couple of other depth defensemen as well. Except for the playing forward part.

There’s a lot more interesting stuff in today’s media availability, and you can watch the whole thing if you want.

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As an assistant coach for Team Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off next month, DeBoer will have a lot of decisions to make. But as the head coach of the Dallas Stars, DeBoer also knows how banged-up some of the players are who would be in line to play for their teams next month.

When asked about how a team considers decisions like Alex Pietrangelo’s decision to withdraw from the tournament while he continues to play for Vegas, DeBoer, who coached Pietrangelo himself back in Vegas a few years ago, was very diplomatic, saying “Those are all personal decisions,” and that “from a coaching perspective, you have to respect that.” DeBoer also went on to praise Pietrangelo for his dedication to Team Canada, saying he knows it wasn’t an easy one to make.

He also mentioned that this meant opportunity for someone else, too. And when asked about Thomas Harley being in the running for such an honor down the road, DeBoer was even more effusive than that:

“I think so,” said DeBoer. “And I wouldn’t say ‘not now.’ I think [Harley] should be in that [4 Nations] conversation. He didn’t have a great start to the season, neither did Wyatt [Johnston], but I think, if those jobs are available now, based on their play over the last couple months, both those guys should be in those conversations.”

Harley is probably a bit behind guys like Chris Tanev, Drew Doughty, Evan Bouchard, and Brandon Montour in that pecking order, but he really is a player whose ceiling is likely quite a bit higher than people often realize, so I don’t think it’s crazy to say he’d be on the radar for the Olympic team next year, depending on how the playoffs go this year.

Some of that is a result of playing behind Miro Heiskanen on the power play, I think. But just as the Stars took their time moving Harley onto the second power play in place of Ryan Suter, so also will they be similarly methodical about any power play quarterback handoffs.

In fact, DeBoer said that, while Harley did come out on the top power play with St. Louis the other night in the third period, it was just a result of “mixing some things up,” with Heiskanen also being pretty fairly fatigued.

“I think we all felt Miro’s fatigue,” said DeBoer. “We ask him to do an awful lot, and when you get to the end of a stretch like that, nobody more than him has played more minutes over that stretch, or hard minutes, over that stretch of games, than him. So it was just maybe to give him a little bit of a breather.”

As for Wyatt Johnston, the sky really might be the limit for him, and DeBoer has pretty much shown he thinks along those lines. Whether Team Canada agrees with that remains to be seen, but it’s remarkable how realistic it is for a 21-year-old player to be in that conversation at all, let alone to be a plausible candidate even this year, should more players back out.

By the way, in asking around a bit, I get the sense that some other NHL players view Pietrangelo’s situation more as a one-off than the start of a trend. The prestige of playing for a national team is simply too appealing to turn down in most cases. Obviously you never know what everyone is thinking, but if any other players pull out of the tournament, I wonder if it would be only for one of two reasons: 1. Because they view their spot on next year’s Olympic roster a lock regardless, and/or 2. They have already had success at that level (Pietrangelo won Gold for Canada in 2014), such that the allure is a bit less shiny when it comes to their personal legacy.

Pietrangelo has two more years left on his deal in Vegas, so I’m sure there will continue to be a lot of speculation about why their player is continuing to play in games in January even after announcing he won’t go to the 4 Nations Face-Off. But that’s all it is: speculation. Only Pietrangelo knows for sure. Time will tell if others follow in his footsteps.

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The Stars play tomorrow night in Vegas, then they come home for two games against Vancouver and Columbus this weekend. Then they hit California for a three-game road trip before the 4 Nations Face-Off break in two weeks. And after that break, they’ll have another three-game road trip against the Devils, Islanders, and Blue Jackets. So, if you want to see a Stars game in Dallas, you’ll have two chances this week, but after that, they won’t be at American Airlines Center until February 28.

Speaking of which, I’m told that season ticket holders have been getting their renewal information this week, with some facing a decent increase (10-20%) in price for next season. With the Stars on a long sellout streak so far, it’s not surprising that demand is high and that prices are following. After back-to-back years getting to the final four, you’d hardly expect a bargain. But with a lot of economic questions for us all on the horizon (I barely avoided using “turbulent” and “murky” there, please clap), it’s anyone’s guess what the cost of going to a Stars game will look like in years to come. But a good guess probably starts with “more” rather than “less.”