Let’s Speculate about the Merits of a Potential Seth Jones Trade to the Dallas Stars
Jeff Marek’s daily podcast, The Sheet, is always enjoyable. Marek also has a weekly column by the same name, and he’s mentioned Dallas a couple of times this year in it. Marek has long been plugged into Dallas, so any time he reports what the Stars might be thinking, it’s usually worth listening.
Marek, for instance, first reported John Klinberg’s turning down an extension with Dallas back in 2021. And the fallout of Klingberg’s not being locked into a long-term deal in Dallas is a decision that has some fairly direct bearing on what Marek said today, given that the Stars still haven’t really replaced Klingberg since his departure in 2022.
Okay, let’s get to the point already: in his blog Monday morning, Marek wondered whether the Stars might be interested in acquiring veteran right-handed defenseman Seth Jones from the Chicago Blackhawks:
Jones is from Texas, could probably use a change of scenery, and the Stars did have some interest when Columbus was shopping him in the Summer of 2021 before he ended up with the Blackhawks. Dallas could use help on the right side.
That interest in Jones in the summer of 2021 makes a lot of sense, given the imminent departure of John Klingberg going into that final year of his contract. Without any other NHL right-hand shots in the system, Dallas obviously needed to figure out a plan not only in case of Klingberg’s departure, but to help the right side as a whole. Jones had been struggling in recent years in Columbus, but earlier in his career in Nashville, he was one of the most coveted players in hockey. When Columbus acquired Jones from Nashville in exchange for Ryan Johansen, it looked before long like the Blue Jackets may have pulled off a heist. But as with everything in Columbus, time took its toll, and Columbus eventually moved on.
As we know now, the Blackhawks ended up trading for Seth Jones in 2021 and extending him for what immediately looked like too much money: eight years on top of his one year remaining, and at a $9.5 million annual ticket on top of that.
About a week after Jones went to Chicago in that same summer, the Stars went out and signed Jani Hakanpää and Ryan Suter for multi-year deals to round out the defense. The Suter deal in particular strikes me as something that could well have been a Plan B after not getting a big-minute right-shot defenseman like Jones, in retrospect. Suter would end up playing a lot of that season with Miro Heiskanen, moving Heiskanen to the right side of the top pairing—where Jones would have played, you’d think, if he had gone to Dallas.
If there was Jones interest back then, as Marek is reporting, then I could see the Stars being willing to consider Jones again, for the right price. Though, to be clear: Marek isn’t quite reporting that the Stars are also pursuing him right now, but simplying wondering. Make of that what you will.
Where this speculation gets even more interesting is the potential price in trade. As Darren Dreger and David Pagnotta have also reported, the Blackhawks would even be willing to consider retaining money on the Jones deal, which is pretty remarkable to me, given the five years left on it in which they’d have to eat any money they retained. But Chicago is in a bad way right now, so you could definitely see them looking to change course after even Connor Bedard has encountered some frustration this year.
With Jones signed until he’s 35 years old, you could see how Kyle Davidson might want to trade that deal while it’s still movable in order to jump-start the Bedard era by re-allocating that cap space. Though it’s not like Chicago has a ton of other right-shot defensemen in their system, but the hope would probably be that Jones could bring in a haul that would collectively surpass his individual contributions.
Jones hasn’t been quite as dismal in Chicago as he was at the end of his Columbus career, and that’s saying something, given how bad Chicago has been for a while now. Jones is 30 years old, was born in Arlington (though he grew up in Colorado), and he comes in at 6’4″ tall. He’s also been averaging 25 minutes a night on the aforementioned Hawks team, and the Stars really don’t have a fourth top-four defenseman who could eat those sorts of minutes right now.
No, Jones isn’t Chris Tanev or Cale Makar, but he is a valuable commodity in this league, and particularly to a team as stacked on the left side and barren on the right as Dallas.
As for the risk, Jones’s underlying numbers tend to show that he’s a player whose peaks are pretty tantalizingly high, but with some valleys mixed in there:
Now, it’s always hard to figure out how much of playing on bad Columbus and Chicago teams is weighing down a player, but Jones has looked better since leaving Columbus, no doubt. Again, I think there’s a very good player there, potentially.
Marek goes on to add a caveat about the Stars’ plans, though:
Having said that, there are many who believe Lian Bischel is ready now and by the end of the season will be in a top-four role with the team. Bischel made the AHL All Star team, plays in all situations for the Texas Stars and logs 22 minutes a night.
Here is where I do the obligatory correction of the spelling of Lian Bichsel’s name (though it’s understandable to instinctively spell it with the “S” in front, given how Bichsel has requested his name be pronounced “bih-shell” this year despite being “bick-sell” in his native language). But here is also where we talk about how realistic any of this really is.
Let’s start with Seth Jones: As far as a trade goes, I think the price would dictate everything, as it always does. Doing a deal with Jones’ contract is tough enough to make me hesitant to even discuss the possibility to begin with, but Jones really does fit such a big need for Dallas that I think it’s worth pondering. You might say we do somet thinking, here on Stars Thoughts.
If you’re Chicago, you’d start by asking about Lian Bichsel. I think the Stars would be more inclined to offer a package built around draft picks, a forward who could help the Blackhawk in the future like Emil Hemming, and one of Nils Lundkvist or Matt Dumba. Either player would give Chicago a right-shot defenseman back with team control for next year. Fans would probably prefer to move Dumba, as it would allow Dallas to free up more cap space while moving on from a deal that hasn’t worked out as hoped. But it would also be an asset with negative value, as Dumba just got healthy scratched again on Sunday. That would mean Chicago would probably ask for more draft capital or a better forward in order to retain any money on Jones’s contract.
Dallas has one huge advantage in this situation, though: Jones has a full no-move clause in his contract. And that might mean, as we saw with Patrick Sharp back in 2015, that the Blackhawks don’t really have the flexibility of entertaining the highest offer from any team in the league, but rather only of entertaining the highest offer from a team Jones would be willing to be moved to. Even so, I think a low-ball offer like Hemming, Dumba, and a first-round pick wouldn’t be anywhere near enough to get Chicago to move Jones unless they had absolutely no other choice. And I don’t see how they would be forced to make a deal right now, so Dallas would probably have to add better assets to really get the conversation started, unless there’s other pressure we don’t know about.
There’s no guarantee Jones would be open to going to Dallas, but given how appealing the Stars are as a destination right now in terms of their competitive window, organizational reputation, and their home state’s tax situation, I think it would take something as unique as Chris Tanev’s tax implications to prevent a player from moving to a Cup contender like the Stars. That’s just a guess, but something of an informed one. Multiple players I talked to in training camp who signed with Dallas in free agency mentioned how much they were looking forward to coming to a team like Dallas, and they all cited those same things: it’s a first-class organization, and they’re clearly ready to win right now.
As far as the Stars, I would bet that Dallas has indeed looked into this possibility, as Jones fits such an obvious need for them. There’s always going to be the hope that Jones would be an even better player on a better team, too, so you might even have some built-in upside to any deal.
Some warning signs are there, of course. Jones missed over a month with a broken foot this year in Chicago, and he’s had his hiccups in play, too. But he’s also a proven commodity as a big-minute defenseman, and he’s got size on his side, which you can bet Dallas would like to have more of in the playoffs. Given how much the Stars believe they can, and should compete for a Stanley Cup this year, I don’t think years four and five on that deal would really worry them too much, especially if the cap keeps going up.
And if Jones played on the right side next to either of Esa Lindell or Miro Heiskanen, I think the Stars would feel pretty confident about his chances of improving even further. Built-in upside, as we said.
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The other piece of all this to consider is Jones’s cap situation and the Stars’ limitations going forward, though.
For this year, Jones’s cap hit could easily work if the Stars put Tyler Seguin on long-term injured reserve. It does reduce their ability to go out and get a big-time forward, as they’ve also been rumored to be looking at, though. But for a rental, there’s probably a way to get the cost and cap hit down enough to work, even if it costs Dallas more draft capital to do it, like they did with the Tanev trade last year.
But this year isn’t really the issue with a Jones deal. Of course he helps Dallas right now. The issue is the next five years, when he would be the highest-paid player on the Stars’ blue line (unless Harley’s new deal came in higher). So let’s put on our store-brand Mark Janko hats for a moment and see what we can do with the salary cap. For the purposes of this discussion, let’s assume the cap will go up to $92 million next year, though recent reports from the NHL have it a tick higher, at as much as $92.4 million.
For next year, swapping Jones’s $9.5 million cap hit for, let’s say, Dumba’s $3.75 million would be a $5.75 million addition to the defense corps price tag. If Chicago retained, say, $2 million of that, then it would be a $3.75 million addition, which would eat up nearly all of the cap space gained from bringing Jamie Benn back at a $5 million deal.
That’s also a problem because Wyatt Johnston needs a new deal next year, and you can bet the Stars will want to sign him for as long as possible, even if it’s for a huge amount. And even with the salary cap certain to go up, a Johnston’s deal is going to take up a large amount of the Stars’ remaining cap space for next year. For our purposes today, let’s say Johnston comes in at $9 million, though his agent would surely push for even higher, given Johnston’s age. Buying out any of his UFA years would, and should, be a very expensive proposition. What I’m saying is, you should be prepared for the possibility that Johnston could miss a lot of training camp next season while waiting for such a deal to get worked out. But let’s say he signs for $9 million just so we can get to a number of some kind right now.
The bad news is probably going to hit the forward group, as even with some maneuvering, I think that means the Stars also wouldn’t be able to bring back Matt Duchene next year even if he once again took an unfathomably low cap hit of $3 million, let alone Sam Steel or Evgenii Dadonov.
Here’s a rough-and-ready roster I threw together on PuckPedia just now to give you an idea of the numbers. The only problem: This roster comes in at over $93 million, meaning even going with an largely AHL fourth line group still wouldn’t be enough to come in under the cap. And that’s with giving Mavrik Bourque just a $1.5 million deal, which is a number I picked because I have been writing for hours now and I just want to move on already and let you all tear this to shreds, as you should.
If you say that Chicago retains just $1.5 million on Jones, then this roster would come in just under the projected cap for next year. But that’s only for next season, as players like Harley and Robertson will be needing new, more expensive deals in 2026, too.
So, the answer to the question, “Can Seth Jones’s cap number fit in the Stars’ plans for the future?” is something like, “Yes, if you’re willing to sacrifice in the bottom-six forward group to do it.”
In summary: if you think Seth Jones is likely to hold decent value for the next few years, then I think it’s worth considering this trade. But the costs will be considerable, to put it mildly. Then again, if he helps Dallas win a Cup, nobody is really going to mind. But if he doesn’t, then the Stars will have all of the next half-decade to talk about why. I guess that’s where we come in.