Game 4 AfterThoughts: Process and Results
The Dallas Stars are 4-0-0 to start the season. They’ve gotten there despite having to play without Matt Dumba, Mavrik Bourque, and Tyler Seguin in some of those games. Their first two games saw their goalposts tested numerous times, and their most recent win had to come in a shootout against a team that won the draft lottery last year.
So, you can choose a narrative if you want. Either their results belie a flawed approach, or else they’re earning wins in spite of their imperfections, and the processes will correct itself.
In a vacuum, People On The Internet are going to focus on process. They’ll say the Stars entered the game 30th in the league at xGF%, and that the goaltenders have been keeping the Stars afloat. They’ll say the power play hasn’t executed well enough, and that against better opponents than the ones Dallas has faced thus far, the Stars would have dug themselves a hole by now.
If you’re Peter DeBoer talking to The Assembled Media after the game, you’ll probably put things differently, though:
“I think that was four [games] in six [days] for us, and with some self-inflicted mistakes. We’re obviously gonna take some pride in not beating ourselves, so that’s something we gotta eliminate. But a win’s a win in this league, and you got to find a way to bank as many points as you can, and we found a way.”
-Pete DeBoer, on Dallas winning 3-2 in a shootout on Tuesday night
What DeBoer didn’t say is that the Stars have been one of the best teams in the NHL over the past two seasons, and that they’ve probably earned some of the benefit of the doubt when it comes to how they bank points. Everyone agrees that the Dallas roster is largely stacked, apart from the right side of the defense. And everyone mostly agrees that the Stars are as likely to win another couple of playoff series this year as any team in the NHL.
But early in the season, it’s also normal to try to predict larger trends. I don’t begrudge anyone trying to point to warning lights on the dashboard in an effort to anticipate possible disasters down the road. Maybe that’s just fans fanning, or maybe it’s a trauma response brought on by similarly successful teams failing to win the ultimate prize once the end-of-season tournament begins. Maybe all fans are similarly traumatized, and we’re talking about the same thing.
It would be nice to have the Stars validate everyone’s confidence in them by blowing the Sharks out 10-0, but how often do great teams really put up those kinds of efforts, regardless of the opponent? (More on this later.) Sometimes, you have to take the game you get dealt.
Matt Duchene said it after the game tonight: the Sharks were a tough opponent for Dallas last year, too, so they weren’t really surprised by how tough the game was on Tuesday. Maybe it’s just a case of the Stars’ structure being inherently more vulnerable to, uh, let’s say the Sharks’ “Penchant for Taking Advantage of Gifted 2-on-1s.” Maybe the Stars get overconfident against teams like San Jose and try passes they wouldn’t dare against Vegas, Colorado, or Edmonton.
You can try to use games like this one to validate your criticisms of a team, to show those warning lights on the dashboard are actually for something. But I would argue that a shootout win is probably not any more indicative of problems than a decisive win over a great team indicates perfection. Games are weird things, and given how packed the Stars’ schedule is leading up to the Finland trip, maybe DeBoer & Co. are wise not to pull the E-brake every time there’s a hiccup this early in the season.
Or, maybe they’re not. But until they actually, you know, lose a game, I don’t think many coaches are going to countenance hefty criticisms, at least publicly. That’s fair.
All the same, don’t think they aren’t talking about those issues behind the scenes, too. NHL coaches love nothing more than to feel the satisfaction of having fixed a problem or improved a process, so even if they aren’t going to admit that they’re concerned about things four games into the season, I have a hunch they are still hoping to do some preventative maintenance before the next warning light comes on.
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Oh, and the game was a really entertaining one, too. Which, I am told, is the whole conceit of the thing called Sports.
The Stars made a couple of turnovers at the offensive blue line that burned them, but they also scored a couple of slick goals to make up for those two mistakes. I’m sure the coaches had some choice language after the turnovers by Jason Robertson and Jamie Benn, but given the emotional nature of NHL vocabulary on the bench, they may have employed the same words in a positive context after Matt Duchene and Roope Hintz finished off slick passing plays. You die by the S-word, but you can come back to life with an S-word, too.
After filling in for Mavrik Bourque for three games, Wyatt Johnston was finally put on the top line the coaches were hoping to start with for the majority of preseason (or at least, as much as they could with Jason Robertson missing nearly all of the prelude to the season). And the top line delivered with a tic-tac-toe play that saw Jason Robertson make a much better pass than he did to Tyler Toffoli earlier in the second period. Robertson and Johnston also scored in the shootout, so even though the line might not have dominated their opposition, they still came through when it mattered most.
Speaking of, here is Wyatt Johnston, finishing off a 3-for-3 effort by Stars shooters with a Mike Modano shot over the glove to win the game.
FIRST 4-0 TEAM IN THE @NHL!#TexasHockey pic.twitter.com/70m5lQXsTe
— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) October 16, 2024
I think there’s every reason to think that the top line will get better each game, and they’re already starting from a pretty great place. But also, you can’t help but be surprised to see Robertson, Hintz and Johnston get outchanced at 5v5 against any line from this San Jose roster. Maybe the Sharks are going to be much better than everyone thinks. Or maybe it was just one of those nights. Again, you decide.
In fact, let’s pause for moment. How often would you say a really good team should look like a really good team for the bulk of a game? Yes, the Stars generally pulled away from the Sharks after the first San Jose goal, but no one would call this a complete, 60-minute effort (or 65-minutes, come to that). Seriously, what is your barometer for how often a great team needs to put up those sorts of games?
For the first time this season, the Stars finally trailed in a game, and maybe it’s one you’d say proves the Stars are not yet ready to win it all. But the funny thing is, that goal kind of woke them up, and they out-chanced San Jose 8-2 in high-danger terms for the second period. Maybe “don’t poke the bear” in Dallas terms should be translated to “don’t score on Dallas, or else.” Certainly the Islanders and Kraken were following those words of wisdom. We’ll see what the rest of the NHL decides.
My suspicion is that, if you asked coaches around the league, they’d probably say they get no more than ten “really good games” a season, then a few stinkers, and then a whole lot of “battle through some issues and hope one part of your team saves the other part’s bacon.” Hockey is just too fluid and dynamic a game, most of the time, for one team to really drum the other out of the building entirely. And the funny thing is, Dallas just shut out two teams in a row, which is the absolute best thing you can do to a team!
You are allowed to want more from the team you love, but I think coaches are likewise allowed to risk being seen as complacent when taking a long-term perspective about the realities of a hockey season. And again, this Stars team has earned at least a little grace after the last two years, right?
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As for the goals against, Dallas gave up a few unnecessary 2-on-1s (are there ever “necessary” 2-on-1s?) and got burned twice, albeit in a bit of an unfortunate way. The first goal happened when Jason Robertson made a pass you cannot make at the offensive blue line, particularly when Thomas Harley had joined the attack and was already heading towards the net.
I’d be curious to ask Robertson if he thought Johnston was cutting inside here after his last check:
If so, you can see what he’s thinking: lay it off for Johnston to take in stride, then maybe hit Harley at the net for a great scoring chance. But instead, Johnston cuts up the middle of the ice, and Toffoli easily takes the pass and heads the other way.
Backhands at the Blue Line sounds like the name of a bad hockey playlist, but it was certainly the name of both San Jose goals, or at least their origin.
Dellandrea scores in his return to Dallas pic.twitter.com/wthmfCARrc
— Sharks on NBCS (@NBCSSharks) October 16, 2024
Maybe Ty Dellandrea yelled a secret code word from last year that only teammates knew. I don’t know. In theory, most of the Sharks’ players’ momentum was carrying them the other way, and the Benn pass almost made it across to the other point. But kudos to Dellandrea, who perhaps knows how to anticipate Jamie Benn’s passes better than any other San Jose player on the ice, for jumping the route, springing a teammate, and cleaning up the (very preposterous) rebound himself. It’s okay to be happy for the opponent sometimes. Especially if his picture used to be on your goalie’s mask.
Robertson, of course, redeemed himself with the assist to Hintz later in the game. It was a reminder that Robertson is also one of the best scorers in the NHL. Imperfect humans still do wonderful things, and some of them more than most.
If that shot is an aperitif for the top line’s regular season, then Stars fans have a lot to look forward to. All three forwards were confident and synced up, and the result was enough to get the Stars past sixty minutes. Robertson also had a gorgeous backwards, between-the-legs feed on the first-period power play that Johnston probably ought to have stuffed home, but we are quibbling over little things at this point. The chemistry is there, plain to see. The points tend to follow.
As for the first Stars goal, I wanted to point out Ilya Lyubushkin, who would receive a tertiary assist if such things were awarded in the NHL:
It’s not an earth-shattering play, but Lyubushkin continues to find himself in situations you wouldn’t ever have expected Jani Hakanpää to be. And while he’s paid a bit more for a bit longer than his predecessor, I think the Stars have gotten value for money so far. It is four games into the season.
Finally, it was appropriate that Duchene scored this goal, after all of the setting-up he’s been doing to start the year. He’s looked every bit like one of the Stars’ best forwards since the drop, and I don’t think it was a coincidence that DeBoer started Duchene and Johnston in overtime. Duchene also sprung Evgenii Dadonov for a breakaway in this game, and set him up for a great chance after getting caught on what was almost a breakaway of his own. But as with his other linemates against Seattle, the chances weren’t converted. Kudos to Duchene for finally just doing things himself (with a great feed from Marchment, by the way).
For the record, I asked Marchment about his breakaway against Seattle, and he said the puck rolled on him, otherwise he is sure he would’ve beaten Grubauer. That’s not really relevant to this game, but it’s something that I wanted you all to know, and now you do. Professional athletes are usually not lacking for confidence. And the way Marchment is going so far this year, who can blame him?
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We’ve already argued with ourselves plenty, so let’s get this horse in the barn with a few final thoughts about the Stars.
The Sharks’ top line was the only one really generating chances for the first part of the game, but boy howdy, was it generating them. Jake Oettinger had a number of stops on the Toffoli-Granlund-Eklund trio early, and it’s a testament to how good Oettinger has been that the game was allowed to get to a more exciting part without much notice. A big moment was an Eklund rebound chance after Oettinger stopped Granlund, and that’s when you really felt like Oettinger was going to give them a chance to win.
The other Oettinger save that really stuck out–but he had a few–was this great toe save on Presumptive Yacht Aficionado Barclay Goodrow:
Denied by Otter pic.twitter.com/B26kgeYhKO
— Stars On Victory+ (@StarsOnVictory) October 16, 2024
The Dallas Stars have an outstanding team save percentage of .959 through four games, which is just behind Winnipeg for best in the NHL. Jake Oettinger has been very good to start the season, you may have noticed. Maybe we’ll end up counting his All-Star selection last year as an early reward for his performance this year. Thus far, he’s earned every plaudit you can imagine.
Brendan Smith had a very eventful game, catching a post with a shot early in the first period, then getting caught in between trying to keep a puck in at the blue line and nearly giving up (yet another) 2-on-1 in the second period, but he recovered just in time. Luke Kunin also got him a bit crossed up on a 1-on-1 with a move similar to the one Logan Stankoven used in Nashville on the Stars’ first (and thus far, only) power play goal of the season. Smith also killed a couple of penalties, and with Nils Lundkvist and Alex Petrovic also hoping to earn more minutes, I can imagine a decent fire is lit under him. With Matt Dumba out for the next little while, it’ll be interesting to see who the Stars’ sixth defenseman winds up being when number 3 is back in the lineup.
Mavrik Bourque made his season debut, and I think he looked fine. As with Oskar Bäck in Nashville, getting through the first game of the season is sometimes the main thing to worry about. Bourque said after the game that he needs to be as confident in the NHL as he was in the AHL, and confidence takes time to build, as do most things that require building. (I apprenticed for a carpenter for two summers during college, so I know how building works.) But if he is the player he has shown himself to be in the past, then the Stars could be in very good shape, in no small part because that also means Wyatt Johnston will be able to play on the top line.
That 5-on-3 kill for Dallas was something else, man. Esa Lindell was huge, staying out for the entire thing, but Ilya Lyubushkin was also strategically aggressive, and effectively so. Combined with the incisive work by Johnston and Sam Steel, the Stars didn’t give up any shots on the two-man advantage. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen that long of a 5-on-3 go without even so much as a frustrated one-timer into a goalie’s stomach. It was almost cocky, with Dallas even sending two men up near the blue line at one point in an attempt to clear the puck. Lyubushkin then had to scramble to recover, but the fact that they were confident enough to press that hard in the first place tells you that the Stars weren’t joking about making their penalty kill more aggressive this season. Or if they were, it appears the players didn’t get the punchline, and thank goodness.
Sam Steel probably should have been more selfish on a 2-on-1 early in the game (after a fantastic defensive play by Heiskanen to turn the play around and spring the rush), but you can’t blame him for wanting to return the favor to Colin Blackwell after the great pass against Seattle. Speaking of, you should pull up the broadcast and watch Colin Blackwell pull off a cockamamie deke toward the end of the second period to very nearly score a highlight-reel goal. Sometimes we forget that even a fourth-line forward (and especially one on the Dallas Stars) is still one of the very best hockey players in the entire world, and they can do things with a hockey puck that defy logic, all with the effortless air of someone making a sandwich.
If Blackwell keeps this level of (earned) confidence, he’ll surely find himself putting a biscuit in the basket very soon, and who wouldn’t take that?