Game 7 AfterThoughts: Too Little, Too Late, Not a Powerful Enough Play
Any time you’re as good as the Stars are and you start the season 2-for-21 on the power play, people are going to jump all over it. And perhaps rightfully so, given the Stars’ anemic efforts in a thoroughly winnable game.
Then again, the Stars also started last year 2-for-21 on the power play, so maybe people are fools for jumping all over it. Or maybe, as Obi-Wan intimated, the fools who follow the fools are the more foolish of the two. Except also, the initial people were still labeled fools, so aren’t they both fools? I am starting to wonder if George Lucas was really a master of dialogue, folks.
In similarly foolish pursuits, Dallas got the first three power plays of the match, and probably should have gotten a couple more. But frankly, they needed to punish Buffalo in the highest-leverage times, and they failed to do so, while Buffalo capitalized on their chances with two goals in 83 seconds that really made a tough game tougher. And that’s not unlike how the Stars were playing their trade in the first few games of the season, come to that. (Remember two goals in 13 seconds against Seattle?)
But if Dallas was due to receive a taste of their own medicine in Buffalo, just be glad it happened in October rather than June.
When we talk about the power play needing to be “better,” we generally mean “create more high-grade chances.” And that’s as good a metric as any, for we all know all shots aren’t created equal. But for Dallas tonight, even quantity over quality might have been a defensible approach, as they somehow got outchanced by the Sabres on each team’s respective 5-on-4s despite Dallas having three power plays to Buffalo’s one.
I mean, you can see the problem, and if you watched the game, then you probably saw lots of problems, as the teams exchanged decent chances early, with the Stars’ typically solid defensive structure withering under the reckless onslaught of a Lindy Ruff team only halfway assembled. That made the power plays all the more crucial for Dallas to establish a foothold in the game, but they weren’t able to do so, and the Sabres eventually got a wonky goal that sent them on their way.
After the game, with regard to the power play, Peter DeBoer demurred a bit, saying that Buffalo simply executed better than Dallas throughout the game. But DeBoer also said a bit more after practice on Monday with regard to a question from Brent Severyn about the power play entries: “The entries have been great. Just too predictable, too slow in the zone.”
And indeed, The first power play from Dallas wasn’t quite sharp enough despite efficient entries. The second power play saw two glorious chances by Mason Marchment, but neither one could beat Luukkonen. If I’m reading things right, the Stars’ power play set had some umbrella formation tendencies that only ever felt dangerous on the pair of Marchment chances. You do wonder if they got a bit used to having the Pavelski tip as a secondary option, and now have less confidence in similar plays without him while they search for alternatives.
Right now, point shots just feel wasted, and because that option hasn’t been generating enough for them, you wonder if they are going to continually rely on dishing the puck to a forward heading downhill who can either beat the goalie or create a rebound with enough bodies to retrieve it. But tonight, Dallas couldn’t find any of the rebounds.
I can’t remember how many times Daryl Reaugh said “frustration” in this game, but it was certainly not half as many as one could’ve, given the missed opportunities. But then, there were missed opportunities on both sides, and given the back-and-forth action, it really did feel like the game would turn out to be what it was: one in which the team who got the first bounce would win it.
***
Again, though, Oettinger was brilliant. Bowen Byram had a chance against the Duchene line after Marchment fell down and couldn’t recover in time to cover the weak side, but Jake Oettinger, as he has so often done this year, held strong. There was also a shot that I haven’t been able to find (my notation tends to be worse when I cover games from home, sadly) where Oettinger flashed one of the slickest, sharpest blocker saves I’ve seen in a while. It’s a shame I haven’t found it, but at the time, I thought Josh Bogorad did a good job of capturing how efficiently Oettinger flicked the puck away. If you wanted a paragon of “NHL-caliber blocker save on NHL-caliber shot”, that would’ve been the one. Let me know if you remember this, please! I am technically asking you to do my job for me, but on the upside, you will get very marginal credit for it.
Wyatt Johnston created a scoring chance midway through the first period out of sheer willpower, which might be what he has to use to get going this year in the scoring department. I do think DeBoer saw Johnston doing the same thing, however, as he moved him back up to the top line in an effort to move the needle. I think Johnston is right around it these days, and once he breaks through, I’d expect to see a pretty consistent run of scoring from him. He’s just too good not to put it all together, as we’ve seen for two years now.
Jason Robertson also tested the left pad of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen after a nicely manufactured 3-on-2 after Buffalo failed to cleared their zone, and at the time, I couldn’t help but think of Stuart Skinner in the Edmonton series. It felt like a game in which the opposing goalie didn’t have to be as outstanding as Oettinger, but where he just didn’t have to make any clear mistakes, and that’s what it took to stymie the Stars’ offensive efforts. But also, I mean, he played really well. Not making mistakes is, by definition, the whole point of goaltending. Credit where it’s due, but I also wouldn’t say he stole the game or anything.
The Buffalo dressing room disagrees with me, however. Take that for what it’s worth.
***
One amusing moment (remember when this game felt light and fun, way back then?) happened when the Buffalo goal horn briefly sounded—they’re a hopeful bunch out there—when Jake Oettinger had to front a shot by Rasmus Dahlin, and the rebound was collected by the same and promptly shot off his back from below the goal line, nearly banking in. But Thomas Harley smartly cleared it off the line, and no further horn came to affirm the initial burst, and the game went on. I imagine that a goal-horn operator’s biggest thrill would be blowing the horn in that situation, then having the NHL Situation Room confirm the call, allowing you to then blast the goal horn right in the middle of play to say, “Hey dummies, what did I tell you?” If you are an NHL Goal Horn Operator, please also do this part of my job for me and let me know if this is accurate.
After an extended shift where Mavrik Bourque was reunited with Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn, Johnston almost scored at the end of it, testing the glove hand of the Sabres’ goalie whose name I have spelled enough times at this point to prove I can type it if I want to and just don’t feel like it right now. But the Stars, despite generating chances, continued to fail to make Buffalo pay for their loose play with the puck.
The penalty kill was big in its lone appearance tonight, as the Sabres’ pent-up frustration at not having scored a single power play goal this year was palpable. But great work by Ilya Lyubushkin and his goaltender got the Stars through it, meaning that Buffalo’s victory actually means nothing, technically speaking, since they still have that zero hanging around their neck on the power play. Moral victories are the best kind!*
*they are not
You know how they talk about missing a chance at one end and then getting burned at the other? Well, after Nils Lundkvist went to the net with Roope Hintz on the rush, Hintz sent Lundkvist a tap-in that just couldn’t find Lundkvist’s tape (or could Lundkvist’s tape not find the tap-in? You decide!), and it felt like the universe then decided to punish Dallas for its flagrant wastefulness directly afterwards.
Here are the two best chances for Dallas. It would have been better for them if they had scored these. pic.twitter.com/lrTBsx4LSH
— Robert Tiffin (@RobertTiffin) October 23, 2024
Peyton Krebs finally would beat the Stars goalie when a deflected shot from distance bounced off the crossbar behind Oettinger like some sort of carnival game, hanging up in the air for a tantalizing moment before Krebs reached over and whacked the puck home before Oettinger ever knew about it.
Jamie Benn then couldn’t find a pass on a 3-on-1 after Rasmus Dahlin turned the puck over in a terrible spot, and once again, Dallas got burned the other direction shortly after having a golden opportunity themselves.
The fourth line battled for an extended time along the wall in the Sabres’ zone, and Heiskanen pushed up to join the battle, only for the puck to squirt out at the perfect time for a stretch pass to create a 2-on-1 that caught the covering Bourque not quite in position on his man, and the odd-man rush was on.
Here is the issue on the last Buffalo goal.
It's a quick 2-on-1 out of nowhere, but still would like to see Harley take away the passing lane for a second or two longer and force a shot from below the circle.
This is a no-win scenario. https://t.co/YbJAojwXYc pic.twitter.com/tYDJJik1L9— Sam Nestler (@samnestler) October 23, 2024
Thomas Harley probably could have done a tick better at blocking the passing lane, as Sam mentions in the above Tweet, and Harley shattered his stick against the post after the goal, so I’d suspect he agrees.
Logan Stankoven also nailed the iron as square as could be during that same mid-third period press by Dallas, proving once and for all that the goalposts have betrayed the Stars after their previous alliance in the first two games of the year. Can’t trust anybody these days. Stankoven had another one of those nights where he looked like the player fans would most want to have the puck, even if he didn’t end up scoring. The Stars’ roster is packed with good forwards, I have noticed, probably before anyone else.
WIth 6:00 remaining in the third, the Stars joined the Patrick Roy Brigade and pulled Oettinger with an offensive zone faceoff. It eventually paid off, with a Harley point shot deflecting awkwardly off a Sabres stick and looping over a completely screen Luukkonen to balance out the karma of the first Sabres’ goal, leaving Dallas with four-and-a-half minutes to score two more, and you know, they almost looked like they were going to for a minute there. Kudos to DeBoer for being willing to pull a goalie with six minutes still remaining. It’s not the first time I’ve said it, but I don’t think you can easily categorize DeBoer as an “old-school” or “new-school” coach. He’s a smart guy with strong opinions, and he’s shown even in the last three years that he’s no conformist, if there’s a better way to be had. Not every coach would have countenanced Wyatt Johnston’s rookie season as an 18-year-old, you know.
Anyhow, two pretty clear Buffalo penalties were missed in the third period, but it might have been the better outcome, given Dallas’s lackluster power play. Nils Lundkvist was blatantly high-sticked by the Stars’ net after a J.J. Paterka shot was saved by Oettinger, and then Tyler Seguin had his stick violently slashed to pieces while the nearest referee had his back turned while skating out of the path of play. But in Seguin’s case, as with Harley’s, the universe rewarded him for tolerating a sour note before, as Mavrik Bourque found a rebound on another 6-on-5 sequence and fed it perfectly through the crease. Tyler Seguin then took a beat to marvel at the gaping net before testing the tensile strength of the upper reaches of the open net to make it 3-2.
But Dallas wouldn’t really scare Buffalo again, and an eventual Alex Tuch empty-netter in the final minute put things to bed.
LURKING pic.twitter.com/UGZi3DyZ3H
— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) October 23, 2024
To pause on Mavrik Bourque for a moment here, it was noteworthy that he was moved back to center on the fourth line, with Steel and Blackwell playing wing. I don’t think it’s absurd to read that as a testament to the team’s confidence in Bourque, despite his move to the wing against Edmonton. Furthermore, I thought it was telling that Bourque was repeatedly sent back out in the final five minutes despite starting the game on the fourth line. He really did seem to up his game as the contest went on, and that is something coaches notice. There were a couple of sequences where I think Bourque really found his footing, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him score a goal on Thursday against Boston. Just a hunch.
Furthermore, take a look at this shift chart from HockeyViz, and you can see Bourque (number 22 below) continuing to get regular turns in the lineup during crunch time, which could not be said for Steel or Blackwell.
That’s not something that happens unless the coach trusts you, even though it’s also fair to point out that the Stars were playing with six attackers for the bulk of those final six minutes, so Deboer was just alternating Harley and Heiskanen with the five forwards who looked the least gassed every other shift. Still, I think those minutes would have gone to Blackwell or Steel if he didn’t have faith in Bourque, and it was pretty well vindicated, I think. Maybe that sort of pedal-to-the-metal stretch is what Bourque needed to gain some confidence. Goodness knows he’s good enough.
***
Earlier in the third period, another line scramble was in order for DeBoer, as Stankoven and Johnston swapped places, as well as Dadonov and Steel. But in keeping with the theme of the night, the Johnston-Hintz-Robertson trio generated great pressure and a couple of solid chances on their first shift, only for Buffalo to convert their next chance with ease, as Tage Thompson ripped a cross-ice feed high in the zone with pace aplenty to beat Oettinger.
hell ya pic.twitter.com/izlfssKTe8
— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) October 23, 2024
And to Dallas’s credit, they didn’t quit after going down 3-0. The only line that didn’t get shuffled in the third was the Mason Marchment-Matt Duchene-Tyler Seguin trio, and Marchment reminded everyone why when he dangled into the zone to create a glorious chance, dishing the puck to Duchene on the doorstep that looked for all the world like a sure-fire goal, only for the puck to get Buffalo’d away from the net, somehow.
It's been that kind of night for Dallas. Grade-A chances. Nothing to show for it. pic.twitter.com/fsuwJKHhpJ
— David Castillo (@DavidCastilloAC) October 23, 2024
It really should be a comfort to Stars fans that the Duchene-Seguin-Marchment trio looked like they hadn’t missed a beat after Seguin’s return in this one, even if they didn’t score earlier when it would’ve been most helpful. Now, the Stars just have to get their top line to start looking as good as their second line, and their best forward from last year to start looking as good as Mason Marchment, and they’ll be all set! It’s really not that complicated when you think about it.